Jeff Bell Blog

The U.S. Housing market became a "bubble" for the following reason -- people who could not afford the down payment nor the mortgage payment of the home were allowed to borrow anyway. Banking institutions then packaged these mortgages and sold them to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So how did this happen? The United States Government -- Executive Branch since Clinton, and the Legislature -- has promoted home ownership by lowering the financial requirements. In the 1980's, over 80% of homes had a 20% cash downpayment required with a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. By 1992, with the Community Reinvestment Act, Banks were not just ALLOWED to accept 15%, then 10% then 5% then no downpayment, then were told they could generate the loan and then sell it to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Let me go further...Banks were now only allowed to offer variable rate mortgages, but they were encouraged to market products which ASSUMED home price appreciation and a growing economy (because it ...

President Obama's first year: Promise to close Gitmo in a year, but don’t People accuse you of not being born in the USA You give Gordon Brown a box of DVDs in NTSC format Pass $787 billion stimulus bill and promise unemployment below 10% Authorize the use of deadly force against Somali Pirates Air Force One buzzes Manhattan Administration creates hysteria over Swine Flu Arizona State won’t give you an Honorary degree at Commencement speech Administration takes over ownership of General Motors Cash for Clunkers benefits Toyota most of all You have a beer with Sgt. Crowley after calling him “stupidly” Joe Wilson shouts “You Lie” The “Tea Bag” movement begins and involves 2 million people You promise Olympics in Chicago and fail You threaten Fox News and back down You win the Nobel Peace Prize and no one (including you) thinks you deserve it Wall Street wins and Main Street loses You lose Virginia and New Jersey governor’s mansions You decide to try Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in NYC and ...

1. The majority of Americans (hereafter "we") wanted to exit Iraq because it was not clear what we were doing. It is still not clear and there is no certainty of exit. 2. We wanted to get out of Afghanistan, but we now have another Bush/McCain “surge" of 30,000 troops. Even Jon Stewart believes there is little difference between the two on National Security. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WnYDOAAHfFo 3. We did not trust President Bush because he had a very small inner circle of advisors. See http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b6b4700a-10fb-11df-9a9e-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1 Barack Obama is even worse. Now there are calls for the ouster of Axelrod, Gibbs, Jarrett and Emanuel. 4. Related to #3, we all felt that Bush was a huge disappointment in NOT being bi-partisan. But Obama is even more partisan than Bush! When was the last time President Obama criticized Congress? Not the Republican Congress, but Congress in general? When was the last time he said he support...

There are four investment issues on my mind as we start this New Year: 1. Commodities and specifically gold . I believe that there are macroeconomic supply and demand issues which will continue to press commodities higher over the course of this year. Soft commodities, like coffee, tea, sugar, all increased over 25% in 2009. Metals in general had a very good year, and food as a whole should continue to rise. The one glamour play (pun intended) which confounds me is gold. I must admit that have successfully invested in gold this year via GLD, but now wonder if we are at the top. What would make gold go up? Not demand -- industrial and jewelry demand is sated. One reason would be a weak dollar (see below). General fear could drive gold higher. And then there is greed...as everyone sees the new highs and rushes in. What could make gold go down? No real demand, stable to appreciating dollar, no fear and fewer fools rushing in. Gold is sideways to down in 2010. 2. The U.S. Dollar . The doll...

In my last posting, I made the statement that "fundamental" factors were weak or absent in supporting the theory of an economic recovery ("green shoots). What exactly are the fundatmental factors for us to monitor and consider? - Unemployment - Consumer Spending - Consumer Debt The US economy appears to be stabilizing, and perhaps it has reached the "half-way point" or the "bottom" of the present recession. What is driving this confidence? Government spending and cheap money are the dominant reasons. Many people commented upon my last post with warnings of "excessive government employment and spending." They may well be right. Our government increased expenditures and direct payments to our citizens by 6 percent last quarter according to the Financial Times of London. Also, the federal reserve is "printing" money by keeping interest rates near ZERO, making the residential and commercial real estate crisis seem less intense. These ...

I would say that my outlook is mixed. I believe that the panic has passed for investors. I believe that there is technical momentum in the market. But I am also concerned about the fundamentals of the economy -- commercial and credit card debt default, unemployment and finally, de-leveraging by households and its negative impact upon consumer spending. The financial marketplace has gone way up, but why? Earnings have exceeded expectations. But I worry about the quality of the earnings, and especially the impact of lower demand will have on declining revenues. With that said, here are some thoughts on why we might want to be more positive: 1. The 2nd quarter of this year was better than the 1st...in every measure save unemployment. 2. All the data is historical, so the real question is whether we have hit bottom. I think the answer is either yes, or we are very close. 3. The stock market is a barometer for economic activity. The cost-cutting has been aggressive and this has led to p...

April was good for stocks and generally for investors. The markets continue to move higher in early May as we get more information about housing, unemployment and the financial sector. Are we seeing light at the end of the tunnel? Is it a train? Yes, there are those who argue that this is "going to be ugly for some time." There are arguments to be made supporting their position. 1. Banks may need to write off $4 trillion globally -- bad loans and worse investments. They could earn $400 billion in profit annually and we would still see a 10 year recovery period (source: Financial Times of London). 2. Consumers have radically increased savings by reducing spending and credit usage. When you strip away Medicaid/Medicare and other funny elements of Consumer Spending, you find that true discretionary spending is down 20%. If this lasts then yes, we are in for a prolonged recession or stagnation (no growth) for 3-5 years. At that time, net worth/income to debt ratios wil...

As bad as the news is, should we be optimistic about the future? Yes. When we read about massive job losses, and individual companies deciding to lay off thousands, should we be confident in the future? Yes. Why would I say such a thing? Four reasons: 1. Cut fast and cut deep. The worse thing any company can do in an economic downturn is ignore and put off what must be done. We should hope that the cuts announced are overly aggressive, and that they will not all be needed. We should want the biggest possible cuts to insure that they are not only realistic, but overly pessimistic. Trust me; the investment markets want realism and clarity. Honesty that sales will decline will be better received than false optimism in forecasts. By over-doing it, favorable comparisons of sales, and operations and profits will come sooner, thereafter leading to more employment, investment and growth. 2. Inventories are not a problem. This thing started in 2007. Even the automotive ...

My friends, we are indeed in a severe recession. But should we call into question all of our beliefs in capitalism? No. The issue we face is one of financial market collapse. The collapse was not caused by the complex but rather by the simple. Many pundits will talk about the “CDO with ABS,” and yes, there was excessive financial engineering. But the real root cause of our troubles rests with institutions which lent money poorly. In my last blog post, I discussed my own observations as a young MBA graduating with a degree in finance from Wharton. We believed we should use advanced mathematics and some of the new learning’s from physics to “measure and eliminate risk.”” As the Financial Times recently noted, we thought we could “complete the markets.” What would be an example of the “slicing and dicing” of traditional investment vehicles? I have discussed the dismemberment of bonds. The other interesting case study is mortgages. Perhaps it is now self-evident, but for my par...

I want to connect two seemingly unrelated intellectual points: evolutionism and Nobel Prizes in financial economics. What do they have in common? They both are founded on a belief in reason; a belief that math and science can explain everything. Let’s start with evolutionism. In Darwin’s Dangerous Idea, Daniel Dennett takes a philosophical and mathematical journey. This book is not for the faint of heart, but contains a couple of really challenging ideas as they pertain to faith and evolution. To begin, Dennett’s epistemology is Charles Darwin. This is the rail that his train runs upon. Darwin’s theory of natural selection posits that organic life is continually interacting with its environment and adapting to survive. To prove that humans evolved through this process, Dennett makes the following argument: Life is a near infinite mathematical game of chance. Just as it is possible to produce a winner of a contest to correctly “call heads or tails” 1,000 times, the Homo sapiens is indee...

In my opinion, blogging is the first and one of the earliest forms of social media. Blogging is the first phase of “the wisdom of the crowd.” As I have written before, the first websites were brochure-ware, controlled by Webmasters. After the “Dot Com” bubble burst, the web came back much improved. Some people call it Web 2.0, and some dispute whether it improved that much, but it certainly enabled anyone to participate, and to publish. Participation came with bulletin boards and forums, and participation came with blogs. Blogs let anyone sign up and start publishing. Of course for most blogs, no one knew they existed and did not read them (like mine). But even at their best, blogs are a form of “one to many” publication. Some blogs have "comments" but they are hard to use, hard to follow. They read like the dead sea scrolls...literally. With Facebook or MySpace, you see the next evolution. Anyone can publish themselves, and others can comment or post or share photo...

I love movies. Grew up on them. Cannot imagine how many I have seen in my life. For the past few years, we have tried to see all the major nominees for the Oscars prior to the awards show. Last year I predicted No Country for Old Men, Daniel Day-Lewis, Tilda Swinton and Javier Bardem. I completely disagreed with Marion Cotillard. This year I have seen all 5 films nominated for "best." I believe Slumdog Millionaire is the best of the lot. Frost/Nixon is a close second, and should win Best Director for Ron Howard . Milk was too one-sided in its portrayal of history. The Reader was a very good, but not great film. And Benjamin Button now looks like a novelty compared to the rest. The snub was Gran Torino . For best actor, I have seen all the nominees performances and think that Mickey Rourke is the best. Some wonderful performances, but Mr. Rourke brings you in, holds you close and plays the most honest and real of all the actors. For best actress, I go with Anne H...

My fellow citizens: I stand here today humbled by the task before us, grateful for the trust you have bestowed, mindful of the sacrifices borne by our ancestors. I thank President Bush for his service to our nation, as well as the generosity and co-operation he has shown throughout this transition. Forty-four Americans have now taken the presidential oath. The words have been spoken during rising tides of prosperity and the still waters of peace. Yet, every so often the oath is taken amidst gathering clouds and raging storms. At these moments, America has carried on not simply because of the skill or vision of those in high office, but because we, the people, have remained faithful to the ideals of our forbears, and true to our founding documents. So it has been. So it must be with this generation of Americans. Serious challenges That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood. Our nation is at war, against a far-reaching network of violence and hatred. Our economy is badly w...

In our first discussion of happiness, I rooted my argument squarely in Christianity, with the teachings of Jesus Christ and Mother Teresa (See below Part 1). Suffice it to say that the point was that humans are never happy being selfish, and only happy when they give to others. Now I would like to turn some attention to what some might view as the other extreme -- the legacy of Sigmund Freud and the writings Ernest Becker. As we know, Freud became an atheist during his lifetime. Becker was not an atheist, but attempts reconciliation of some of Freud's concepts on happiness in life. My good friend, Gerry Zyfers reminded me that in Becker's work we find a similar concept to one of "giving to others leads to happiness." Gerry wrote me, "I think Becker's basic point was that human beings have a mythology about their own independence, but we are radically dependent on others to give us a sense of meaning and even sense of self. To have meaning you need a mean...

In my humble opinion, the two most distinctive elements of the United States of America's economy are freedom and entrepreneurialism. The First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution states, "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances." What is so striking about this, and quite frankly all of the U.S. Bill of Rights is the negative language. "Congress shall make no law;" or "shall not be infringed" (2nd); or "No Soldier shall" (3rd); all are written to limit or forbid the Federal Government from entering into the lives of its citizenry. This is one of the most profound statements of freedom in the history of politics, society and I will argue, economy. The Declaration of Independence is more positive in its tone, calling ...

U.S. Interest rates Over the next two years, rates will be low by historical standards. This will be bad news for fixed income investors, and good news for borrowing costs. In the 5-10 year time frame, there will be pressure for U.S. interest rates to rise due to the size of the U.S. government budget deficit. In addition, as the economy rebounds (and trust me, it will rebound), then the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to hold inflation in check. So when the government spends more than it collects in taxes, who pays the difference? Today, the shortfall caused by taxes collected being less than government expenditures, has been funded by foreign government purchase of Treasury bonds of various durations. Indeed, of all of the "savings" in the world, the U.S. consumes 85% of it to finance its borrowing. Mind you, the shortfall could be funded by US citizens buying government bonds, and if investors become more risk averse over the next two decades, this may occur. But...

I wanted to write optimistically about our nation's democracy and capitalism. But before I address what I see in the next 3-5 years, I should start with my underlying assumption, and why I believe it to be true:. The United States of America is an incredibly unique social, economic and political construction, and it is the best the world has ever known. Not perfect, but perpetually driven towards auto-improvement. Natural Resources : which other country has the vast amounts of natural resources, in quantity and diversity, as the United States? None. The USA has 30% of the world's natural gas, 22% of its coal, 8% of its oil, copper 15%, Gold 15%, Silver 13%, Aluminium 17%, Magnesium 29%... Go to www.allcountries.org/uscensus/natural_resources.html to see the entire data set. Human Resources : which country has the size, scale and scope of the US education system? None. The USA has 4,140 colleges and universities with 17,500,000 undergraduate and graduate students? No o...

A sound plan from Tom Epley's Bold Exec Blog. I agree with this 10 point plan. Worth reading... http://www.boldexec.com/boldexec/2008/11/show-me-the-plan-gm-part-i-items-15.html

Perhaps it is a consequence of middle age, but more and more of my friends are pondering the meaning of life. To be fair, the terrible economy is also a causal factor, as far too many of my friends have lost jobs or fear losing them shortly. I have friends who are atheists. I have friends who are agnostic. I have friends who are both committed and causal Christians , Jews , Hindus and Muslims . I find, however, that the questions are very much the same. What is the purpose to my life? Am I loved? Do I love others? Does my life matter? Can I be happy? Today, I was reminded of words of wisdom from Mother Teresa. As we approach the second most important Christian holiday, Christmas, we find that one of the key lessons from Advent is the discovery and pursuit of JOY. First and foremost, I should clarify that joy is not pleasure. Pleasure is sensory-based. Joy is spiritual. Due to the fact that I graduated from Kenyon, and majored in the history of ideas or philosophy, most of my friend...