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Showing posts from August, 2009

The U.S. Economy -- 18 months into recession

In my last posting, I made the statement that "fundamental" factors were weak or absent in supporting the theory of an economic recovery ("green shoots). What exactly are the fundatmental factors for us to monitor and consider?

- Unemployment
- Consumer Spending
- Consumer Debt


The US economy appears to be stabilizing, and perhaps it has reached the "half-way point" or the "bottom" of the present recession. What is driving this confidence? Government spending and cheap money are the dominant reasons. Many people commented upon my last post with warnings of "excessive government employment and spending." They may well be right. Our government increased expenditures and direct payments to our citizens by 6 percent last quarter according to the Financial Times of London. Also, the federal reserve is "printing" money by keeping interest rates near ZERO, making the residential and commercial real estate crisis seem less intense. These same…